Only a few years ago learning to code felt like snagging a golden ticket—six-figure salaries, free snacks, beanbags, and unlimited career upside. Today that promise has curdled into mass layoffs, flooded applicant pools, AI tools cannibalising entry-level work, and salaries that can’t keep up with rent, let alone inflation. In short, Programming Is Not Worth It Anymore for most newcomers—and plenty of veterans are quietly mapping escape plans. Here’s why.
Oversupply of Developers, Shrinking Demand
- Bootcamp Booms Gone Bust
Over 100 000 boot-camp grads pour into job markets each year—yet hiring pipelines haven’t scaled to match. FAANG layoffs alone released tens of thousands of experienced engineers who now under-bid junior talent. - University Firehose
CS enrolments hit record highs during the pandemic. Those grads are graduating into companies that off-loaded entire departments in 2023–24 and still run “hiring freezes” in 2025. - More Candidates, Fewer Openings
Mid-tier firms that once hired three juniors for every senior now fill entire back-end teams with three-person squads wielding powerful AI assistants.
AI Is Eating the Entry-Level Lunch
- Copilot & GPT-4.5 Produce Boilerplate Instantly
Tasks that paid juniors AU $90 k now disappear into a two-line prompt and 30 seconds of AI time. Why hire fresh grads when one senior + AI can ship twice as fast? - Automated Code-Review & Refactoring
Tools flag anti-patterns, propose patches, and even open pull-requests. Junior “code janitors” used to clean lint issues; that job category evaporated overnight. - Threat of Complete Displacement
Companies flirting with “no-code/low-code + AI” pipelines need far fewer in-house developers. When they do hire, they prize prompt-engineering skills over deep algorithmic knowledge.
Salaries Stagnate (or Slide) While Costs Soar
| Location | 2021 Mid-Level SWE Base | 2025 Mid-Level Base | Rental Inflation (2021-25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | $155 k | $150 k | +32 % |
| Sydney | AU $132 k | AU $128 k | +21 % |
| Berlin | €60 k | €57 k | +18 % |
- Real Wages Down – After inflation, many devs earn less than they did four years ago.
- Stock Incentives Shrink – Post-pandemic tech rout cut RSU values in half and made refreshers selective.
- Bonuses Disappear – Cost-cutting killed discretionary payouts at once-lavish unicorns.
Global Remote Competition Pushes Rates Lower
Remote work that once let you earn Silicon-Valley cash from Byron Bay turned into a race to the bottom. Companies discovered they can pay developers in Buenos Aires or Bangalore 30–60 % less for near-identical output. When hiring managers blurbs “remote-first,” read: “lowest-cost talent wins.”
Layoffs and “Silent” Firings
- RIFs Are the New Normal
“Reduction in force” emails feel routine; some start-ups run two RIFs in twelve months. - Performance-Managed Out
Major firms quietly squeeze mid-performers by raising performance bars, then replacing them with lower-cost regions or contractors. - No More Severance Cushions
Severance packages shrank from six months to sixty days, making job-hopping riskier.
Burnout, Monotony, and Vanishing Creativity
AI tools handle the fun exploratory work, leaving human developers glue code, integration, and chasing flaky tests. Long hours patching ETL pipelines with no design influence crush passion quicker than mis-named variables.
Alternative Careers Offering Better ROI
| Field | Typical 2-Year Training Cost | Entry-Level Pay (2025) | 5-Year Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud FinOps Analyst | AU $5 k certs | AU $110 k | Demand ↑ |
| Renewable-Energy Technician | AU $3 k TAFE | AU $95 k | Demand ↑↑ |
| Cybersecurity Auditor | AU $7 k certs | AU $120 k | Demand ↑↑ |
| Data Governance Lead | AU $4 k courses | AU $115 k | Demand ↑ |
All four paths require less ramp-up time than deep programming mastery and face lower automation risk.
Five Signs It’s Time to Rethink Coding
- You’re submitting résumé #200 with zero callbacks.
- Your last pay rise was eaten by rent hikes.
- Most of your sprint tasks are “update YAML” or “tweak CI script.”
- Colleagues who left dev for product-ops got promotions faster.
- Your manager tells you to “upsell AI usage” while hinting at head-count cuts.
FAQ
Is programming truly dead?
No—some specialists still thrive. But the mass-market gold rush is over; expect tougher competition and lower ROI.
Should I quit immediately?
Not necessarily. Upskill in adjacent, less-automatable niches like FinOps or security while still drawing a developer salary.
What about indie games or open-source?
Great hobbies, but revenue is hit-or-miss. Even top indie titles often pay below minimum wage when hours are tallied.
Don’t AI engineers earn huge money?
Yes, but you’ll battle PhD’s and ex-researchers for a handful of roles. Entry barriers are soaring.
Will things rebound?
Possibly—tech cycles swing. But betting your livelihood on a maybe is riskier than diversifying now.
